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A General Framework for Prediction in Time Series Models

Eric Beutner, Alexander Heinemann, Stephan Smeekes

arXiv 5 Feb 2019 · Econometrics · 3 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1902.01622 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

In this paper we propose a general framework to analyze prediction in time series models and show how a wide class of popular time series models satisfies this framework. We postulate a set of high-level assumptions, and formally verify these assumptions for the aforementioned time series models. Our framework coincides with that of Beutner et al. (2019, arXiv:1710.00643) who establish the validity of conditional confidence intervals for predictions made in this framework. The current paper therefore complements the results in Beutner et al. (2019, arXiv:1710.00643) by providing practically relevant applications of their theory.

Citation extraction

26
references
63
in-text mentions
26
distinct cited
1
self-citations
14,009
main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Bradley, R. C (2005) Basic properties of strong mixing conditions. A survey and some open questions1.00084100%
2Bougerol, P. and Picard, N (1992) Stationarity of GARCH processes and of some nonnegative time series0.81142100%
3Davidson, J (1994) Stochastic Limit Theory: An Introduction for Econometricians0.81142100%
4Mokkadem, A (1988) Mixing properties of ARMA processes0.81142100%
5Beutner, E., Heinemann, A., and Smeekes, S (2019) A justification of conditional confidence intervals self0.73732100%
6Hamadeh, T. and Zakoän, J.-M (2011) Asymptotic properties of LS and QML estimators for a class of nonlinear GARCH processes0.69371100%
7Francq, C. and Zakoän, J.-M (2004) Maximum likelihood estimation of pure Garch and Arma-Garch processes0.69351100%
8Francq, C. and Zakoän, J.-M (2011) GARCH Models: Structure, Statistical Inference and Financial Applications0.64441100%
9Brockwell, P. J. and Davis, R. A (1991) Time Series: Theory and Methods0.58531100%
10Andrews, D. W. K (1983) First order autoregressive processes and strong mixing0.51121100%

Showing the top 10 of 26 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1A Justification of Conditional Confidence Intervals0.58531
2Journal of Econometrics0.40511