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Machine Learning Estimation of Heterogeneous Causal Effects: Empirical Monte Carlo Evidence

Michael C. Knaus, Michael Lechner, Anthony Strittmatter

arXiv 31 Oct 2018 · Econometrics · 1 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1810.13237 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We investigate the finite sample performance of causal machine learning estimators for heterogeneous causal effects at different aggregation levels. We employ an Empirical Monte Carlo Study that relies on arguably realistic data generation processes (DGPs) based on actual data. We consider 24 different DGPs, eleven different causal machine learning estimators, and three aggregation levels of the estimated effects. In the main DGPs, we allow for selection into treatment based on a rich set of observable covariates. We provide evidence that the estimators can be categorized into three groups. The first group performs consistently well across all DGPs and aggregation levels. These estimators have multiple steps to account for the selection into the treatment and the outcome process. The second group shows competitive performance only for particular DGPs. The third group is clearly outperformed by the other estimators.

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55
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Powers2018 APACrefauthors Powers, S. , Qian, J. , Jung, K. , Schuler… 201851.00065100%
2Nie2017 APACrefauthors Nie, X. \ Wager, S. APACrefauthors \ 2017121.00063100%
3Athey2017a APACrefauthors Athey, S. , Tibshirani, J. \ Wager, S. APA… (2018) 20180.93511582%
4Chen2017 APACrefauthors Chen, S. , Tian, L. , Cai, T. \ Yu, M. APACr… (2017) 20170.92843100%
5Chernozhukov2018 APACrefauthors Chernozhukov, V. , Chetverikov, D. ,… (2018) 20180.92843100%
6Tian2014 APACrefauthors Tian, L. , Alizadeh, A A. , Gentles, A J. \… 2014100.87452100%
7Wendling2018 APACrefauthors Wendling, T. , Jung, K. , Callahan, A. ,… (2018) 201860.87452100%
8Athey2016 APACrefauthors Athey, S. \ Imbens, G W. APACrefauthors \ (2016) 201670.84333100%
9Huber2017 APACrefauthors Huber, M. , Lechner, M. \ Mellace, G. APACr… (2017) 20170.7375340%
10Hill2011 APACrefauthors Hill, J L. APACrefauthors \ (2011) 20110.7373367%

Showing the top 10 of 55 scored citations.

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