EconBase
← All papers

Mostly Harmless Simulations? Using Monte Carlo Studies for Estimator Selection

Arun Advani, Toru Kitagawa, Tymon Słoczyński

arXiv 25 Sep 2018 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Applied Econometrics (2019) · 16 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1809.09527 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We consider two recent suggestions for how to perform an empirically motivated Monte Carlo study to help select a treatment effect estimator under unconfoundedness. We show theoretically that neither is likely to be informative except under restrictive conditions that are unlikely to be satisfied in many contexts. To test empirical relevance, we also apply the approaches to a real-world setting where estimator performance is known. Both approaches are worse than random at selecting estimators which minimise absolute bias. They are better when selecting estimators that minimise mean squared error. However, using a simple bootstrap is at least as good and often better. For now researchers would be best advised to use a range of estimators and compare estimates for robustness.

Citation extraction

49
references
115
in-text mentions
49
distinct cited
1
self-citations
10,669
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 89% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Smith, J. A. and P. E. Todd (2005) Does Matching Overcome LaLonde's Critique of Nonexperimental Estimators?1.000123100%
2Dehejia, R. H. and S. Wahba (1999) Causal Effects in Nonexperimental Studies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs1.00083100%
3Huber, M., M. Lechner, and C. Wunsch (2013) The Performance of Estimators Based on the Propensity Score0.97112592%
4Busso, M., J. DiNardo, and J. McCrary (2014) New Evidence on the Finite Sample Properties of Propensity Score Reweighting and Matching Estimators0.9619489%
5LaLonde, R. J (1986) Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data0.87492100%
6Advani, A., T. Kitagawa, and T. Soczyński (2019) Supplementary Appendix for `Mostly Harmless Simulations? Using Monte Carlo Studies for Estimator Selection' self0.87462100%
7Abadie, A. and G. W. Imbens (2011) Bias-Corrected Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects0.8434375%
8Dehejia, R. H. and S. Wahba (2002) Propensity Score-Matching Methods for Nonexperimental Causal Studies0.73732100%
9Heckman, J. J. and V. J. Hotz (1989) Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods for Estimating the Impact of Social Programs: The Case of Manpower Training0.73732100%
10Smith, J. A. and P. E. Todd (2001) Reconciling Conflicting Evidence on the Performance of Propensity-Score Matching Methods0.73732100%

Showing the top 10 of 49 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1ASSESSING INFERENCE METHODS0.87452
2Using Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks for the Design of Monte Carlo Simulations0.40511
3Abadie's Kappa and Weighting Estimators of the Local Average Treatment Effect0.40511
4Unveiling the Potential of Robustness in Selecting Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimators0.40511