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Clustering Macroeconomic Time Series

Iwo Augustyński, Paweł Laskoś-Grabowski

arXiv 11 Jul 2018 · Econometrics · publishedPrace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu (2018) · 10 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1807.04004 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

The data mining technique of time series clustering is well established in many fields. However, as an unsupervised learning method, it requires making choices that are nontrivially influenced by the nature of the data involved. The aim of this paper is to verify usefulness of the time series clustering method for macroeconomics research, and to develop the most suitable methodology. By extensively testing various possibilities, we arrive at a choice of a dissimilarity measure (compression-based dissimilarity measure, or CDM) which is particularly suitable for clustering macroeconomic variables. We check that the results are stable in time and reflect large-scale phenomena such as crises. We also successfully apply our findings to analysis of national economies, specifically to identifying their structural relations.

Citation extraction

11
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15
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11
distinct cited
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4,918
main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1haan_will_2005 APACrefauthors Haan, J. , Inklaar, R. \ Jong-A-Pin, R… (2007) 20080.64422100%
2ahlborn_output_2017 APACrefauthors Ahlborn, M. \ Wortmann, M. APACre… (2017) 20180.51121100%
3belke_business_2017 APACrefauthors Belke, A. , Domnick, C. \ Gros, D… (2017) 20170.51121100%
4croux_measure_2001 APACrefauthors Croux, C. , Forni, M. \ Reichlin,… (2001) 20010.51121100%
5esa_2010_european_2013 APACrefauthors Eurostat. APACrefauthors \ (2013) 20130.40511100%
6focardi_clustering_2004 APACrefauthors Focardi, S M. \ Fabozzi, F J.… (2004) 20040.40511100%
7gachter_business_2012 APACrefauthors Gächter, M. , Riedl, A. \ Ritzb… (2012) 20120.40511100%
8hamilton_why_2017 APACrefauthors Hamilton, J D. APACrefauthors \ (2017) 20170.40511100%
9keogh_compression-based_2007 APACrefauthors Keogh, E. , Lonardi, S.… (2007) 20070.40511100%
10keogh_towards_2004 APACrefauthors Keogh, E. , Lonardi, S. \ Ratanama… (2004) 20040.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 11 scored citations.