Cancer Risk Messages: A Light Bulb Model

Ka C. Chan, Ruth F. G. Williams, Christopher T. Lenard, Terence M. Mills

arXiv 9 Jul 2018 · Econometrics

Abstract

The meaning of public messages such as "One in x people gets cancer" or "One in y people gets cancer by age z" can be improved. One assumption commonly invoked is that there is no other cause of death, a confusing assumption. We develop a light bulb model to clarify cumulative risk and we use Markov chain modeling, incorporating the assumption widely in place, to evaluate transition probabilities. Age-progression in the cancer risk is then reported on Australian data. Future modelling can elicit realistic assumptions.

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