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Efficiency in Micro-Behaviors and FL Bias

Kurihara Kazutaka, Yohei Tutiya

arXiv 11 May 2018 · Econometrics

arXiv:1805.04225 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a model which simulates odds distributions of pari-mutuel betting system under two hypotheses on the behavior of bettors: 1. The amount of bets increases very rapidly as the deadline for betting comes near. 2. Each bettor bets on a horse which gives the largest expectation value of the benefit. The results can be interpreted as such efficient behaviors do not serve to extinguish the FL bias but even produce stronger FL bias.

Citation extraction

13
references
15
in-text mentions
13
distinct cited
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self-citations
3,412
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 82% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1S. Blough, `Differences of opinions at the racetrack' . In: Hausch,… (1994) pp0.64422100%
2R. M. Griffith, `Odds Adjustments by American Horse-Race Bettors', A… (1949) pp 290-2940.51121100%
3M. M. Ali, `Probability and utility estimates for racetrack bettors'… (1977) pp.803-8150.40511100%
4L. Bachelier, `Théorie de la speculation', Paris: Gautier-Villars, r… (1964)0.40511100%
5R. D. Brown and Y. Lin `Racetrack betting and consensus of subjectiv… (2003) pp.175-1870.40511100%
6A. C. Bruce and J. E. V Johnson, ‘Toward an Explanation of Betting a… (1992) pp 201-2180.40511100%
7S. Chad and R. E. Quandt `Betting Bias and Market Equilibrium in Rac… (1996) pp 287-2920.40511100%
8L. Coleman, ‘New light on the longshot bias’ , Applied Economics 36 (2004) pp 315-3260.40511100%
9E. F. Fama, `Efficient Capital Markets II' Journal of Finance 46 (5 (1991) pp 1575-16170.40511100%
10M. Gramm and C. N. Mckinney ‘The effect of late money on betting mar… (2009) pp0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 13 scored citations.