Kurihara Kazutaka, Yohei Tutiya
arXiv 11 May 2018 · Econometrics
arXiv:1805.04225 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
In this paper, we propose a model which simulates odds distributions of pari-mutuel betting system under two hypotheses on the behavior of bettors: 1. The amount of bets increases very rapidly as the deadline for betting comes near. 2. Each bettor bets on a horse which gives the largest expectation value of the benefit. The results can be interpreted as such efficient behaviors do not serve to extinguish the FL bias but even produce stronger FL bias.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S. Blough, `Differences of opinions at the racetrack' . In: Hausch,… (1994) pp | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
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| 5 | R. D. Brown and Y. Lin `Racetrack betting and consensus of subjectiv… (2003) pp.175-187 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
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| 8 | L. Coleman, ‘New light on the longshot bias’ , Applied Economics 36 (2004) pp 315-326 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | E. F. Fama, `Efficient Capital Markets II' Journal of Finance 46 (5 (1991) pp 1575-1617 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | M. Gramm and C. N. Mckinney ‘The effect of late money on betting mar… (2009) pp | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
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