Sam Asher, Paul Novosad, Charlie Rafkin
arXiv 28 Feb 2018 · Econometrics · 1 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:1802.10490 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
A conditional expectation function (CEF) can at best be partially identified when the conditioning variable is interval censored. When the number of bins is small, existing methods often yield minimally informative bounds. We propose three innovations that make meaningful inference possible in interval data contexts. First, we prove novel nonparametric bounds for contexts where the distribution of the censored variable is known. Second, we show that a class of measures that describe the conditional mean across a fixed interval of the conditioning space can often be bounded tightly even when the CEF itself cannot. Third, we show that a constraint on CEF curvature can either tighten bounds or can substitute for the monotonicity assumption often made in interval data applications. We derive analytical bounds that use the first two innovations, and develop a numerical method to calculate bounds under the third. We show the performance of the method in simulations and then present two applications. First, we resolve a known problem in the estimation of mortality as a function of education: because individuals with high school or less are a smaller and thus more negatively selected group over time, estimates of their mortality change are likely to be biased. Our method makes it possible to hold education rank bins constant over time, revealing that current estimates of rising mortality for less educated women are biased upward in some cases by a factor of three. Second, we apply the method to the estimation of intergenerational mobility, where researchers frequently use coarsely measured education data in the many contexts where matched parent-child income data are unavailable. Conventional measures like the rank-rank correlation may be uninformative once interval censoring is taken into account; CEF interval-based measures of mobility are bounded tightly.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chetty, Stepner, Abraham, Lin, Scuderi, Turner, Bergeron and Cutler (2016) The Association Between Income and Life Expectancy in the United States, 2001-2014 | 0.965 | 10 | 6 | 90% |
| 2 | Chetty, Hendren, Kline and Saez (2014) Where is the land of opportunity? The geography of intergenerational mobility in the United States | 0.941 | 6 | 3 | 83% |
| Guell2013 | unmatched citation key Guell2013 | 0.843 | 4 | 3 | 75% |
| 4 | Cutler, Lange, Meara, Richards-Shubik and Ruhm (2011) Rising educational gradients in mortality: The role of behavioral risk factors | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 5 | Goldring, Lange and Richards-Shubik (2016) Testing for changes in the SES-mortality gradient when the distribution of education changes too | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 6 | Case and Deaton (2017) Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century | 0.830 | 7 | 3 | 57% |
| 7 | Bound, Geronimus, Rodriguez and Waidmann (2015) Measuring Recent Apparent Declines In Longevity: The Role of Increasing Educational Attainment | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Manski and Tamer (2002) Inference on Regressions with Interval Data on a Regressor or Outcome | 0.807 | 19 | 4 | 53% |
| 9 | Bratberg, Davis, Mazumder, Nybom, Schnitzlein and Vaage (2015) A Comparison of Intergenerational Mobility Curves in Germany, Norway, Sweden and the U.S | 0.737 | 3 | 3 | 67% |
| 10 | Case and Deaton (2015) Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 53 scored citations. 1 of these could not be matched to a bibliography entry, so only the citation key is shown.