arXiv 6 Feb 2018 · Econometrics · 2 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:1802.09427 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We employ stochastic dynamic microsimulations to analyse and forecast the pension cost dependency ratio for England and Wales from 1991 to 2061, evaluating the impact of the ongoing state pension reforms and changes in international migration patterns under different Brexit scenarios. To fully account for the recently observed volatility in life expectancies, we propose mortality rate model based on deep learning techniques, which discovers complex patterns in data and extrapolated trends. Our results show that the recent reforms can effectively stave off the "pension crisis" and bring back the system on a sounder fiscal footing. At the same time, increasingly more workers can expect to spend greater share of their lifespan in retirement, despite the eligibility age rises. The population ageing due to the observed postponement of death until senectitude often occurs with the compression of morbidity, and thus will not, perforce, intrinsically strain healthcare costs. To a lesser degree, the future pension cost dependency ratio will depend on the post-Brexit relations between the UK and the EU, with "soft" alignment on the free movement lowering the relative cost of the pension system compared to the "hard" one. In the long term, however, the ratio has a rising tendency.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A. Werpachowska and R. Werpachowski (2017) Microsimulations of demographic changes in England and Wales under different EU referendum scenarios | 1.000 | 5 | 4 | 100% |
| 2 | Ian Goodfellow, Yoshua Bengio, and Aaron Courville (2016) Deep Learning | 0.511 | 5 | 2 | 20% |
| 3 | Andrew Blaikie (1990) The emerging political power of the elderly in Britain 1908-–1948 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | A.J.G. Cairns, D. Blake, K. Dowd, G.D. Coughlan, D. Epstein, A. Ong,… (2009) A quantitative comparison of stochastic mortality models using data from England and Wales and the United States | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | D. Caradog Jones (1934) Local surveys: The social survey of Merseyside | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Press release: John Cridland CBE and the Government Actuary’s Depart… (2017) Dep. for Work and Pensions, Government Actuary's Dep., and The Rt Hon Damian Green MP | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Policy Paper: Joint technical note on the comparison of EU-UK positi… (2017) Technical report, United Kingdom: Department for Exiting the European Union, 2017 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | J. F. Fries (1980) Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | J. Ginn (2003) Gender, pensions and the lifecourse: How pensions need to adapt to changing family forms | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Donatien Hainaut (2018) A neural network analyzer for mortality forecast | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
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