Fatemeh Borhani, Edward J. Green
arXiv 25 Feb 2018 · Econometrics
arXiv:1802.08935 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
People reason heuristically in situations resembling inferential puzzles such as Bertrand's box paradox and the Monty Hall problem. The practical significance of that fact for economic decision making is uncertain because a departure from sound reasoning may, but does not necessarily, result in a "cognitively biased" outcome different from what sound reasoning would have produced. Criteria are derived here, applicable to both experimental and non-experimental situations, for heuristic reasoning in an inferential-puzzle situations to result, or not to result, in cognitively bias. In some situations, neither of these criteria is satisfied, and whether or not agents' posterior probability assessments or choices are cognitively biased cannot be determined.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Granberg and Thad A. Brown (1995) The Monty Hall dilemma | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Daniel Friedman (1998) Monty Hall's three doors: construction and deconstruction of a choice anomaly | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Shinsuko Shimojo and Shin'ichi Ichikawa (1989) Intuitive reasoning about probability: theoretical and experimental analysis of the `problem of three prisoners' | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 4 | Leonard Jimmie Savage (1972) The Foundations of Statistics | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | John C. Harsanyi (1967) Bayesian | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Charalambos D. Aliprantis and Kim C. Border (2006) Infinite Dimensional Analysis: A Hitchhiker's Guide | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Maya Bar-Hillel and Ruma Falk (1982) Some teasers concerning conditional probabilities | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | J. Bertrand (1889) Calcul des Probabilités | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Milton Friedman (1953) The methodology of positive economics | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Martin Gardner (1959) Mathematical games | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 15 scored citations.