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Testing the Number of Regimes in Markov Regime Switching Models

Hiroyuki Kasahara, Katsumi Shimotsu

arXiv 21 Jan 2018 · Econometrics · 2 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1801.06862 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Markov regime switching models have been used in numerous empirical studies in economics and finance. However, the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing the number of regimes in Markov regime switching models has been an unresolved problem. This paper derives the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing the null hypothesis of $M_0$ regimes against the alternative hypothesis of $M_0 + 1$ regimes for any $M_0 \geq 1$ both under the null hypothesis and under local alternatives. We show that the contiguous alternatives converge to the null hypothesis at a rate of $n^{-1/8}$ in regime switching models with normal density. The asymptotic validity of the parametric bootstrap is also established.

Citation extraction

59
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appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Appendix” · 48% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Carrasco, M., Hu, L., and Ploberger, W (2014) Optimal Test for Markov Switching Parameters1.00094100%
2Qu, Z. and Zhuo, F (2017) Likelihood Ratio Based Tests for Markov Regime Switching, Preprint, Boston Unversity0.92843100%
3Kasahara, H. and Shimotsu, K (2015) Testing the Number of Components in Normal Mixture Regression Models self0.8749467%
4Cho, J. S. and White, H (2007) Testing for Regime Switching0.81142100%
5Liu, X. and Shao, Y (2003) Asymptotics for Likelihood Ratio Tests under Loss of Identifiability0.64441100%
6Andrews, D. W. K (1999) Estimation When a Parameter is on a Boundary0.64422100%
7Andrews, D. W. K. and Ploberger, W (1994) Optimal Tests when a Nuisance Parameter is Present Only Under the Alternative0.64422100%
8Chen, J. and Li, P (2009) Hypothesis Test for Normal Mixture Models: The EM Approach0.64422100%
9Chen, J., Li, P., and Fu, Y (2012) Inference on the Order of a Normal Mixture0.64422100%
10Gassiat, E. and Keribin, C (2000) The Likelihood Ratio Test for the Number of Components in a Mixture with Markov Regime0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 59 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1mbMSTest: An R-Package for Testing Markov Switching Models1.000114
2Estimating the Number of Components in Panel Data Finite Mixture Regression Models with an Application to Production Function Heterogeneity Yu Hao Faculty of Business and Economics The University of Hong Kong [email removed] Hiroyuki Kasahara Vancouver School of Economics The University of British Columbia [email removed]0.64422