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Inference for VARs Identified with Sign Restrictions

Eleonora Granziera, Hyungsik Roger Moon, Frank Schorfheide

arXiv 28 Sep 2017 · Econometrics · publishedQuantitative Economics (2018) · 17 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1709.10196 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

There is a fast growing literature that set-identifies structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). Most methods that have been used to construct pointwise coverage bands for impulse responses of sign-restricted SVARs are justified only from a Bayesian perspective. This paper demonstrates how to formulate the inference problem for sign-restricted SVARs within a moment-inequality framework. In particular, it develops methods of constructing confidence bands for impulse response functions of sign-restricted SVARs that are valid from a frequentist perspective. The paper also provides a comparison of frequentist and Bayesian coverage bands in the context of an empirical application - the former can be substantially wider than the latter.

Citation extraction

51
references
79
in-text mentions
51
distinct cited
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30,413
main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Andrews and Soares (2010) Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities Using Generalized Moment Selection1.00097100%
2Uhlig (2005) What Are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure1.00063100%
3Chernozhukov, Hong, and Tamer (2007) Estimation and Confidence Regions for Parameter Sets in Econometric Models0.84333100%
4Kilian and Lütkepohl (2017) Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis\/0.84333100%
5Campbell and Yogo (2006) Efficient tests of stock return predictability0.73732100%
6Andrews and Guggenberger (2009) Validity of Subsampling and `Plug-in Asymptotics' Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities0.64422100%
7McCloskey (2017) Bonferroni-based size-correction for nonstandard testing problems0.64422100%
8Moon and Schorfheide (2012) Bayesian and frequentist inference in partially identified models0.64422100%
9Rosen (2008) Confidence Sets for Partially Identified Parameters that Satisfy a Finite Number of Moment Inequalities0.64422100%
10Andrews and Barwick (2012) Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities: A Reccommended Moment Selection Procedure0.51121100%

Showing the top 10 of 51 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Locally- but not Globally-identified SVARs0.73742
2Partially identified heteroskedastic SVARs0.64422
3Projection Inference for Set-Identified SVARs0.64422
4Microeconometrics with Partial Identification0.40511
5Identifying Preferences when households are financially constrained0.40511
6Algorithms for Inference in SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions0.40511
7Structural Analysis of Vector Autoregressive Models0.40511